果冻影院

Research highlights 鈥榣ack of a clear vision of the future role for gas鈥� in the UK鈥檚 energy system, and cautions that, without CCS, a second 鈥榙ash for gas鈥� could compromise聽decarbonisation聽ambitions.

Gas has only a limited role as a 鈥榖ridging fuel鈥� to a low carbon future, according to new research launched today by 果冻影院 Institute for Sustainable Resources, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) and Warwick Business School.聽

The research also finds that without carbon capture and storage (CCS), the scope for gas use in 2050聽is little more than 10% of the 2010 level.

Previous research by UKERC published in 2014* found that gas did have a role as a聽bridge, but only in some countries (mostly those that use a lot of coal). Today鈥檚 research confirms that聽the scope for a gas bridge in the UK is very limited.

The authors, including 果冻影院 ISR's Paul Ekins, Christophe McGlade and 果冻影院-Energy's Steve Pye caution that any new CCGT gas-fired power stations built to replace coal plants will have to operate at very low load factors in the 2030s and beyond unless they are retrofitted with CCS, and that it is unlikely investors will be willing to build this capacity without strong policy incentives in place.

The UK has legally binding greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets in place, requiring an 80% reduction by 2050 from the level in 1990. But until more low- and zero-carbon energy sources come on stream, we need to consider options for keeping emissions at a manageable level.聽

The report asks how much gas use is compatible with meeting emissions reduction targets, how this will be affected by the availability (or lack) of carbon capture and storage technologies, and how long the timeframe for the use of gas might be. It also explores the potential role of natural gas in the UK through to 2050, looking at the historical role of coal-to-gas substitution in聽decarbonising聽the UK energy system, asking what potential remains, and considering how the role of gas in the energy system might change in future.聽聽

Paul Ekins, Professor in Resources & Environment Policy, 果冻影院 Institute for Sustainable Resources, comments: 鈥楢 key challenge will be managing a 鈥渟oft landing鈥� for the gas industry that keeps sufficient capacity on the mix as its role changes. Alternatives to the use of gas outside the power sector, particularly in heating homes, need to be explored urgently. It鈥檚 not clear that current policies will achieve this, and we need a much clearer vision of the future role for gas in the UK鈥檚 low carbon energy system鈥�.聽

Mike Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy at Warwick Business School and one of the report鈥檚 authors, comments:聽鈥楢 鈥渟econd dash for gas鈥� may provide some short term gains in reducing emissions but may not be the most cost-effective way forward and may even compromise the UK鈥檚聽decarbonisation聽ambitions. If all coal-fired power generation is to be removed by 2025, and we are no longer supporting the development of CCS, policy makers must think carefully about how best to replace that capacity. as can play only a modest role between now and 2020, and in the medium to long-term has no role as a bridging fuel because the UK has already exploited a large amount of the聽decarbonisation聽potential in the power sector'. 聽

Professor Jim Watson, Director of the UK Energy Research Centre, adds: 鈥榃ithout CCS, there is little scope for gas use in power generation beyond 2030 and it will need to be steadily phased out over the next 35 years, and almost entirely removed by 2050. This represents a major challenge in relation to the聽decarbonisation聽of domestic heat, and undermines the economic logic of investing in new CCGT gas plants rather than low- or zero-carbon generation in the first place鈥�.聽

*McGlade聽et al, (2014),聽McGlade聽and Ekins (2015).